For 90 minutes in New Hampshire tonight, eight Republican presidential hopefuls will sit around a wooden table and take shots at each other and President Obama. The theme of
The Washington Post/Bloomberg debate, which starts at 8 p.m, is the economy. As Karen Tumulty, who will be one of the journalists asking questions, wrote,
previous debates definitively shifted the momentum of the race. And tonight’s debate will likely set off yet another a new phase.
1.
Is Herman Cain a contender or a pretender? In previous debates, Cain was the genial candidate-without-a-prayer on the very end of the stage, talking up his
9-9-9 tax plan and his preference for the Chilean model of social security. Tuesday night, because of his rapid rise in
national polls, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO will have Mitt Romney to his left and Texas Governor Rick Perry to his right.
So how do they treat him when he is at their elbows and nipping at their heels in polls?
Romney has praised Cain’s business background, suggesting that he doesn’t see Cain as a threat. In fact, Cain’s continued presence and strong showing only help Romney. Perry, on the other hand, has the most to gain by going after Cain. But he must weigh whether tangling with Cain is actually punching down.
Regardless of whether he is attacked, to sustain his rise, Cain must get more specific about his economic plan, and show that he is more than a flash- in-the-pan candidate with a catchy slogan.
2.
Can Romney take a punch? Romney has come out of every debate with hardly a hair out of place, able to keep focused on his anti-Obama message, and deflect and dismiss his rivals with a simple turn of phrase.
With
New Hampshire polls showing Romney with a strong lead, and
national polls also indicating that he is at the top of the field and considered strong on the economy, the six men and one woman sitting around the table tonight could see a pile-on-Romney moment.
And there’s no better opportunity to try to knock Romney off his front-runner stride than over the economy, his perceived strength. He has yet to face sustained criticism for his record in the
private sector or as governor of Massachusetts. With possible attacks coming from all sides, it will be difficult to ignore everyone. Romney will have to have more than a “
nice try” response at the ready to defend himself.
3.
Rick Perry rebound? Perry’s individual debate performances have been very much like the trajectory of his candidacy so far: he starts strong, then fades down the stretch. His Saturday Night Live-worthy showing in the last debate triggered his downward spiral in the polls, and his statements on
military intervention in Mexico and the revelations about his family’s hunting camp further damaged him.
While it’s true that many voters haven’t begun to tune in to the debates (available for your viewing pleasure tonight on
PostPolitics.com and on Bloomberg TV), party bigwigs are paying attention. They are looking for a reason to either give the
$17 million man another chance, or write him off as not
sharp enough for the job.
In Florida, Perry seemed like the kid who crammed the night before and had memorized most of the material, but didn’t really know it. Over the last few days, his team has set up a debate study hall complete with a faux Romney to spar with. Aides also ordered Perry to get more sleep. With three debates behind him, he knows what’s coming — jobs, taxes, immigration, health care etc. He has to act steady, confident, prepared, and comfortable tonight--or risk a sustained slide.
4.
Will the debate veer off topic? Although debates are among the most planned, haggled-over events of a campaign season, they are also the most unpredictable. The format of this debate will be tighter than previous ones, with a focus on the economy. Yet, much has happened on the stump since the last debate that has nothing to do with the candidates’ economic plans.
In the week leading up to the debate, two crucial things happened. First, there was the revelation of a
Perry family hunting camp with a racially charged name. Second, a Perry supporter called
Mormonism a cult, a charge that Perry disavowed. Yes, the debate is supposed to be about the economy, but with two Mormons — Romney and Jon Huntsman — and a black man (Cain) around the table, can the moderators and candidates avoid talking about race and religion? Or will there be a clear-the-air moment? Whatever happens tonight, with a black president in the White House, and a black conservative and a Mormon front-runner in the Republican contest, race and religion are sure remain hot-button issues.
5.
Who will debate his or her way into a Saturday Night Live skit? Admit it. Part of the appeal of watching presidential candidates debate each other is looking for a misstep or odd moment that leads straight to the writing table of the SNL cast.
Did George W. Bush really use the word “strategery” to sum up his candidacy or was that Will Ferrell? And did Sarah Palin really ask Joe Biden in a debate, “Can I call you Joe?” Or was that Tina Fey? The point is that
Saturday Night Live has a knack for framing candidates and all their tics and weaknesses early on, in a way that isn’t easy to shake.
While
Alec Baldwin’s take on Rick Perry’s debate performance missed the mark on Perry’s accent (it was more Mississippi than Texas), Baldwin nailed Perry’s sleepwalker approach to attacking Romney. Baldwin could have skipped the yawn and the falling asleep at the podium, and simply read what Perry said, and still scored big laughs. It shouldn’t be that easy.
The race's central dynamic has shifted since the last GOP presidential debate, in September from Orlando, Fla. Herman Cain, a Georgia businessman, has risen in the polls, while Rick Perry, the Texas governor, has fallen.
Cain is expected to replace Perry at the center of the stage next to Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.
The Republican presidential hopefuls will face off Tuesday evening in New Hampshire. Even before the event begins, candidates are staking their ground. Texas Gov. Rick Perry went on the offensive, releasing a web video attacking former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney's health care positions. Meanwhile, the debate will be very important to Herman Cain, who has been climbing in the polls, and Michele Bachmann, who has fallen precipitously.
Boston Globe: GOP Candidates Stake Their Ground Before Debate
The Republican presidential candidates descended on New Hampshire yesterday, in advance of tonight's key debate at Dartmouth College, sponsored by Bloomberg, the Washington Post, and WBIN-TV. Texas Governor Rick Perry, businessman Herman Cain, Texas Representative Ron Paul, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will round out the stage. ... Perry released a Web video yesterday attacking Romney's health care reform in Massachusetts. The video compares Romney's Massachusetts reform to Obama's national reform — which all the Republican candidates, including Romney, want to repeal. The video accuses Romney of flip-flopping on the issue. A Romney spokesman accused Perry of "dishonesty, distortions, and fabrications" (Schoenberg, 10/11).
The Associated Press: Republicans Pile On Romney, Looking To Block Him
Romney's rivals readied criticism on health care policy, cultural issues and environmental positions. Even with a focus on the economy and voters most concerned about 9.1 percent unemployment, there was scant chance Romney would be able to dodge questions about his overall record (Elliott, 10/11).
The Fiscal Times: The 15-Point Cheat Sheet on Mitt Romney
10. Governor Romney. He served one term as governor of Massachusetts, from 2002 to 2006, claiming to have "reversed the decline of a state mired in recession." In 2006, he implemented "RomneyCare," a health care law mandating all residents have health insurance. ... 14. Abortion Flip-flop. In 2005, Romney moved from an "unequivocal" pro-choice position to a pro-life one, a change that rival Rick Perry criticized this past weekend as political pandering (Mackey, 10/10).
MSNBC: White House Used Mitt Romney Health Care Law As Blueprint For Federal Law
Newly obtained White House records provide fresh details on how senior Obama administration officials used Mitt Romney's landmark health care law in Massachusetts as a model for the new federal law, including recruiting some of Romney's own health care advisers and experts to help craft the act now derided by Republicans as "Obamacare." The records, gleaned from White House visitor logs reviewed by NBC News, show that senior White House officials had a dozen meetings in 2009 with three health-care advisers and experts who helped shape the health care reform law signed by Romney in 2006, when the Republican presidential candidate was governor of Massachusetts. One of those meetings, on July 20, 2009, was in the Oval Office and presided over by President Barack Obama, the records show (Isikoff, 10/11).
Market Watch: Perry Slams Romney on Health Care a Day Before Debate
Rick Perry is mounting a new attack on Mitt Romney's health care record, trying to hit the former Massachusetts governor where it hurts a day ahead of their next debate. Romney's signing of a law in Massachusetts that partly resembles President Barack Obama's health care act has long been a point of disdain among conservatives. A scathing ad put out by Perry's campaign on Monday suggests the Texas governor will use health care as a line of attack again on Tuesday as he tries to regain footing and put in a better performance than in past debates (Schoreder, 10/10).
Reuters: Perry Video Batters Romney with Health Care
In his latest campaign video, Texas Governor Rick Perry takes direct aim at Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney over health care. The video casts the former Massachusetts governor as a mirror image of President Barack Obama when it comes to the federal health care overhaul, which conservatives deride as "Obamacare." Obamacare morphs into "Romneycare" in the video, which links the Republican frontrunner to the Democratic president's plan (10/10).
The Washington Post: The Fact Checker: Rick Perry's New Ad About Mitt Romney And 'RomneyCare'
Texas Gov. Rick Perry launched an ad Monday attacking Mitt Romney on the health care reform law that not so affectionately bears his name among conservatives. The overall theme of the ad — that Romney's health care law is intellectual father of Obama's law — is correct. But then it goes even further than that. … We've already scrutinized Perry's attack on the Romney book edits, so we won't spend any more time on that. Suffice it to say we awarded three Pinocchios to the Texas governor for manufacturing a phony issue (Hicks, 10/11).
The Texas Tribune: Video: New Perry Attack Ad Challenges "Romneycare"
Gov. Rick Perry's presidential campaign has produced an online attack ad aimed at Mitt Romney (Tan, 10/10).
Boston Globe: Down in Polls, Michele Bachmann Seeks N.H. Support
Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann brought to New Hampshire yesterday the same withering critique of government that has made her popular among small-government Tea Party movement activists and has fueled her candidacy. ... She said she would repeal Obama's health care overhaul without waiting for the Supreme Court to rule whether it was constitutional. "I don't trust, necessarily, what the Supreme Court is going to do," she said. She took a swipe at Republican rival Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who has said he would grant waivers to all 50 states so they do not have to comply with Obama's health care law (Schoenberg, 10/10).
McClatchy/Minneapolis Star-Tribune: Bachmann's Order Of Business Is Change
Her first order of business is well-known: Repeal "Obamacare." That's the issue that thrust Michele Bachmann into the national spotlight and has provided a rallying cry for her White House campaign. But that's only the tip of a Tea Party-style agenda that has helped frame the GOP presidential race so far, even as Bachmann has fallen precipitously in the polls (Diaz, 10/10).
Boston Globe: Optimism, Candor Boost Cain in Polls
He's more than Mr. Congeniality, popular for his straight-shooting sense of humor and powerful gospel-singing voice. Herman Cain, a pizza magnate, conservative talk-radio host, and the only serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination without prior political chops, has in recent weeks proved to be a candidate who some analysts say should be taken seriously. ... The turning point appeared to occur during the Sept. 22 GOP debate in Orlando, where an energized crowd repeatedly interrupted his statements with applause. He railed against federal health care reform by connecting it to his own battle with colon and liver cancer. Cain, who was given a 30 percent chance of survival, said he would be dead had "Obamacare" been in effect during his treatment because care would have been delayed under bureaucratic oversight. He has now been cancer-free for five years (Jan, 10/10).
