Latest Solar Flare Activity: Report

Another Incoming CME
According to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the CME caused by the M6.3 Solar Flare early this morning, will have an Earth bound component that will likely re-intensify the Geomagnetic Storming on March 11th. Strong Geomagnetic Storming will again be possible.
http://solarwindstorm.blogspot.com/
The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction shows an impact Early Sunday morning at 07:00 UTC with a Solar Wind increase to over 600 km/s

Strong Geomagnetic Storm Subsides
A Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm (KP=7) was in progress on Friday morning with the KP index reaching very close to the Severe G4 Storm Levels. Visible Aurora had been reported in many parts of Canada and Northern USA, however a very bright moon made viewing conditions a little tricky. The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) ranged from -5nT to -15nT south for many hours and the Solar Wind speed ranged from 800 to 950 km/s. The Kp has since dropped below minor storm levels, however expect more Geomagnetic Storm in the days ahead.
http://solarwindstorm.blogspot.com/
The 6 Meter (50mhz) amateur radio band was full of Aurora signals throughout the early morning until Sunrise here in North America. Video will be available this weekend.

This geomagnetic storm was sparked by an incoming CME impact from an X5.4 Solar Flare early on Wednesday morning.
http://solarwindstorm.blogspot.com/

Geomagnetic Storm and Solar Wind Activity Report

Updated Mar 09 2200 UTC
Updated Mar 09 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2012



IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z

to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity reached high levels today.  Region 1429

(N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z.  Associated with this

event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a

full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z.  The

CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2

imagery.  Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area

was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc

spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  A new

spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432

(N18E69).  This new region is too close to the limb to accurately

determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced

a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.



IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue

at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from

Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).



IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to

continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07

March CME.  At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the

interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more

magnetically connected polarity.  Bz continued to be negative for

several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar

wind speed over 600 km/s.  The geomagnetic field responded with

major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z. 

Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the

period.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z

is ongoing.  The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at

07/0405 is ongoing.



IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early

on day 1.  Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm

periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane. 

Approximately early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME

associated with todays M-6 flare is expected to become

geoeffective.  Active to severe storm periods are expected (Kp 4 -

7) with this event.  Unsettled to active conditions with minor storm

periods possible is expected on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are

expected to slowly dissipate.

Latest Solar Flare Activity: Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 09 Mar 2...

Latest Solar Flare Activity: Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 09 March 2012

09 March, 2012 solar wind storm, geomagnetic storm, geophysical activity, latest solar, latest solar activity, latest solar flare activity.

Strong Solar Flare
Sunspot 1429 is now in a great geoeffective position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections. This region just produced a strong M6.3 Solar Flare at 03:53 UTC Friday morning. A movie presentation is now shown below. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest Lasco C2 and STEREO Behind COR2 images. More images will be needed to determine how large of a plasma cloud it is, and if it will be Earth directed.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 09 0343 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1285 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Updated 3/9/2012 @ 02:40 UTC
CME Impact / Geomagnetic Storm Subsides
The ACE Spacecraft detected a shock passage and a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 58 nT at the Boulder Station was recorded at 11:05 UTC Thursday morning. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) caused by the X5.4 Solar Flare did impact Earths geomagnetic field.

Minor Geomagnetic Storming (Kp=5) persisted for many hours today, but the Kp Index is now below the G1 minor storm level. Depending on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), there will be a chance for additional storm flareups over the hours ahead. Visible Aurora will remain possible at very high latitudes.

Bz Update The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been pointing mostly to the north and this has kept the geomagnetic storm at minor levels thus far. Should the Bz begin to point south for long durations, this may help intensify the storm.

Strong Solar Wind The current Solar Wind speed continues to gradually decrease and is now near 650 km/s, as per the SOHO Spacecraft data. As you can tell by the updated graph below, the solar wind spiked to above 800 km/s when the CME shock swept past SOHO. 

Latest Solar Flare Activity: latest news of Solar Flare Activity March 7 2012

Latest Solar Flare Activity: latest news of Solar Flare Activity March 7 2012:

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with todays X5/Full halo CME event.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.

Latest Solar Flare Activity: Latest Solar Flare Activity: March 2012

Latest Solar Flare Activity: Latest Solar Flare Activity: March 2012:

Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare. This one is the strongest yet, an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash:

This eruption hurled a bright CME into space. First-look data from STEREO-B are not sufficient to determine if the cloud is heading for Earth. Our best guess is "probably, yes, but not directly toward Earth." A glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere is possible on March 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for updates